Offseason Ramblings

The offseason is upon us after the Hurricanes decisive Game 6 shutout of the Vegas Golden Knights.

Brandon Bussi (3-1 record, 0.931% in the playoffs) did manage to get 1 point in the Conn Smythe voting (a 3rd place vote by Steve Carp of The Sporting Tribune), which is 1 point more than Freddie Andersen who had a sparkling 13-2 record, accompanied by a 0.910% save percentage and 1.89 GAA over the playoff run.

If the playoff order was reversed, as in the Canes played Vegas in round 1, swept Philly and the Senators in the East Finals, and the Finals respectively, there is no doubt that Freddie Andersen would be the easy choice for playoff MVP.

Linus Ullmark (+1.509 GSAx/60) and Brandon Bussi (+1.490 GSAx/60) both played in 4 games these playoffs. Is Ullmark then worthy of some votes for the Conn Smythe trophy?

Jordan Staal’s goal scoring streak in the finals gave him the edge in voting, as we once again saw a recency bias play out in awarding this trophy.

Frederik Andersen did boost his value at an opportune time as he is days away from entering unrestricted free agency, along with fellow veteran goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. It will be fascinating to see which direction the Florida Panthers choose to go with rumours swirling about Connor Hellebuyck possibly being on the move to play with his Team USA gold medallist teammates in Florida (M.Tkachuk), or New Jersey (J.Hughes).

The market did see its first movement with Joseph Woll (-6.6 GSAx, 0.898%) heading to Philadelphia in exchange for restricted free agent Samuel Ersson. Ersson played in 33 games this season (-16.6 GSAx, 0.870%) and was not likely to be resigned by GM Danny Briere in Philadelphia.

With a crowded crease in Toronto, it is even more likely that he won't be signed there either, freeing up cap space for the Leafs and making Ersson a UFA.

Emil Andrae (RFA) a smaller puck moving defenseman and Simon Benoit a rugged bottom pairing defenseman ($1.35M x 1 year) were also involved in the deal, as GM John Chayka begins to put his signature on the Leafs.

This deal opens up a spot for Dennis Hildeby who had a great showing at the NHL level in 20 games. The ‘Hildebeast’ who is no longer waiver exempt, had a league leading +0.625 GSAx/60 in all situations, amongst goalies who played in more than 6 games this past year.

After back to back twinsie seasons of 80 pts in 82 games (in 2023-24 and 2024-25), Jason Robertson boosted his points per game totals from 0.98 to 1.17. This was his highest output since the 109 pts in 82 games (1.33 ppg) season in 2022-23. What were the factors that played a role in this rise?

Firstly, Robertson received an increase in ice time to over 20+ minutes per game. In the previous four seasons he was always between 17:48 and 18:50.

Secondly, his percent of power play time also got a major boost to 80.7% (in the previous four seasons that percentage ranged from 56.5-66.3%).

This led to a doubling of his power play points from 19 to 41. Dallas had the most goals (65) in the league at 5v4.

Thirdly, he posted one of the highest secondary assist totals (27) for a forward, 4th in the league behind Kucherov, Eichel, and McDavid. Those three however had much more primary assists: Kucherov (51), Eichel (30), and McDavid (57) compared to Robertson (24).

Robertson is an RFA and assuming he signs in Dallas he should still be a fixture on the top power play unit, however the power play efficiency numbers will be hard to replicate, so we can predict that Robertson’s power play totals should decrease along with a down tick of the good luck he had in the secondary assist department.

Another forward likely to see a decrease in points is Cole Caufield. Caufield led the league in goals above expected at +17.3. He also had a 19.6% shooting percentage, well above his career average of 14.2%.

Had he shot his career average this season he would have finished with 37 goals and 74 points (0.90 ppg), which represents a more logical progression from his previous 3 seasons of rising points per game (0.78 to 0.79 to 0.85 ppg). His PDO (1041) and IPP (69.3) were the highest of his career, but not ‘jump off the page’ high.

A couple of UFA veterans finished in the top ten in the league in 5v5 PTS/60. It will be interesting to see where they land and if they can keep up their spike in production. Anthony Mantha (3.1 PTS/60) and Viktor Arvidsson (3.2 PTS/60) posted the highest PTS/60 of their respective careers this past year. Mantha has a career 13.8% shooting percentage with a caveat - since October of 2023 he has 60 goals on 280 shots (21.4% over the last 3 seasons).

Did he change sticks? Or maybe he altered his shooting technique? Interesting to see the recent significant rise in shooting percentage. The big question is if this is the new Mantha or riding an extended string of shooting luck. He could be a sneaky add for a team looking for offense from the wing.

Arvidsson’s IPP (71.1), PDO (1062), and 5v5 shooting percentage (13.9%) were all elevated to varying degrees. For example in 5 of the previous 6 seasons before this high 5v5 shooting percentage, he hovered between 6.4% and 7.9%. This past year he was definitely getting the bounces to go his way and it will be difficult to keep up his PTS/60 production.