Monday Morning Ramblings featuring the Oilers goaltending situation

The Oilers goaltenders are in high danger of being replaced. Speaking of high danger, the Oilers sit dead last in the NHL with a high danger save percentage (0.7417%). Coincidentally the Oilers are also last in high danger shooting percentage (8.85%); giving them a ‘high danger PDO’ of just 0.8302! This has resulted in an NHL worst goal differential of -21 (10 high danger goals for, compared to 31 high danger goals against).

Let's compare this with previous years:

2024-25 Oilers: High danger goal differential of +25 (130 high danger goals for, 105 high danger goals against).

2023-24 Oilers: High danger goal differential of +45 (164 high danger goals for, 119 high danger goals against).

2022-23 Oilers: High danger goal differential of +34 (167 high danger goals for, 133 high danger goals against).

The Oilers led the league in high danger goals for in 2022-23 and 2023-24.

The team that went to the Cup Finals the last 2 years will not go quietly into the night, they will rebound in a big way once this unsustainable bad luck in the high danger areas normalizes.

Jack Roslovic has performed well, 16 pts in his last 15 games, but might be someone to sell high on when Ryan Nugent-Hopkins returns from injury. Adam Henrique bumped Roslovic from the top PP unit on Nov 20 vs the Lightning, but Roslovic was back on the top unit Nov 22 vs the Panthers. A healthy RNH will bump Roslovic off that coveted spot for good. Roslovic's shooting percentage is high as well 17.6% (12.7% career) and will come down.

The Oilers goal differential has been gradually decreasing for three straight seasons from +65 to +57 to +23. This season, however, it has fallen off a cliff: they are at -13 after just 23 games. This is entirely due to their unsustainable poor percentages in the high danger areas.

The Oilers offense was able to mask the deficiencies in nets, but this year the porous goaltending provided by Stuart Skinner (8-6-3 record, 0.885) and Cal Pickard (2-3-2 record, 0.851) is firmly under the spotlight. Both happen to be unrestricted free agents at the end of the year.

In Edmonton, there is growing concern amongst the fan base that something must be done. Subpar goaltending cannot waste the prime years of McDavid and Draisaitl. Is this the best GM Holland can do for McDavid after he generously gave the team an unheard of hometown discount signing for only $12.5 million/year?

It is a question of when, not if, GM Holland will finally make a move to improve the Oilers’ goaltending. Tyler Yaremchuk on the OilersNation podcast gave a 62% chance that the Oilers will have a new starting goaltender by December 1st.

Let's go back one year. On December 9, 2024 one of the most significant trades (at least in terms of fantasy) took place in the NHL. Mackenzie Blackwood, a waiver wire goalie at the time splitting starts on the lowly San Jose Sharks was traded to the offensive juggernaut Colorado Avalanche to become their starter.

It is highly likely that this year something similar happens, where one lucky goaltender will have his fortunes change and be given a chance to be the starter for the offensive juggernaut Edmonton Oilers. Before this happens though, the Oilers will likely give Connor Ingram a chance at the NHL level. In the AHL thus far, he has played to an unimpressive 3.69 GAA with the Bakersfield Condors (2-3-2 record, 0.871%). Ingram did miss training camp, so his numbers may take time to improve. Like Skinner and Pickard, Ingram is also an upcoming unrestricted free agent. The other goaltender on the Condors is Matt Tomkins (5-3-1 record, 0.884%).

Can we predict who the Mackenzie Blackwood of 2025-26 will be? If yes, fantasy GMs will be able to nab a top ten goalie for pennies on the dollar.

One of the most important factors that will help us whittle down the possibilities is the salary cap handcuff that GM Holland is facing. Not only do the Oilers have just 213k of cap space to play with, but they also have a plethora of no move clauses and no trade clauses. 11 of the top 13 AAVs on the team have some sort of NTC or NMC. Cap space is so tight that they are currently running with 11 forwards and 7 defensemen.

So where is ‘Blackwood 2025’ going to come from? Likely from a motivated seller that will accept draft picks and cap dumps. Is the team that is trading with the Oilers a bottom feeder? Have they given up on the season? Are they carrying three goalie for fear of a waiver claim?

Sellers or teams looking to make a change: Predators – Saros, Blues – Binnington, Sabres – Luukkonen/Lyon/Ellis, Sharks - Nedeljkovic, Columbus – Merzlikins. This list will grow as the season progresses because of teams that will fall out of contention.

The 3 goalie teams include Buffalo (UPL, Lyon, Ellis), Carolina (Andersen, Kochetkov, Bussi), and future Vegas (healthy A.Hill, reinstated C.Hart, and a no longer waiver exempt A.Schmid).

The odds are on a goalie with a cheap salary on a team lower in the standings. The closest match I see is Alex Lyon ($1.5M x 2 years). He started the season with a heavy workload (starting 9 of the first 11 Sabres games) while Luukkonnen recovered from an injury.

More recently, however, Lyon (3-5-3, 0.907%) has been pushed to the sidelines by waiver claim Colten Ellis (3-2-0, 0.896%), who has started 4 of the last 7 games for the Sabres. Luukkonen started the other 3 games, meaning Lyon hasn't played since November 8.

Lets not forget Devon Levi (8-3-0, 0.892% for the Rochester Americans), who is rumoured to have wanted out if he is stuck behind the goalie backlog in Buffalo. Luukkonen also wants more playing time to increase his chances of playing at the Olympics. Just like somethings gotta give with the Oilers, somethings gotta give with the Sabres too.

Trading a goalie would alleviate the varying levels of discontent amongst the collection of Sabres netminders. Only in the deepest of leagues should any of these Sabres be rostered due to the severe timeshare on a bottom dweller.

A fifth goalie, Alexander Georgiev is now on waivers for the purposes of a contract termination after playing just 2 games (both losses) for the Rochester Americans. Georgiev is the anti-Blackwood, going from the Colorado Avalanche to the San Jose Sharks to the Rochester Americans, and now possibly to the KHL.

Insider David Pagnotta has said that Cam Talbot’s UFA status, low AAV, and lack of NTC make him a realistic option for the Oilers: “If I’m the Oilers… maybe that’s a call worth making”. Talbot makes $2.5 million and is a UFA at season's end, The Red Wings have John Gibson signed for this year and next. Grand Rapids Griffins goalie Sebastian Cossa (5-1-0 record, 0.940%) and Michigan State University goalie Trey Augustine (8-3-0 record, 0.935%) eagerly await in the (red) wings, so 38-year-old Cam Talbot will not be in the future plans.

Talbot knows the Oilers organization having a 4 year stint with them from 2015-2019. He put up 42 wins in the 2016-17 for the Oilers. Although the time on ice is virtually identical for Gibson and Talbot (675:24 vs 653:06 respectively), Talbot (9-2-0 record, 0.899%) has clearly outperformed J.Gibson (4-6-1 record, 0.870%).

Another identical fact: BOTH Talbot and Gibson are 48% owned in Fantrax, and BOTH are 22% owned in Yahoo. Detroit is perched atop the Atlantic Division, one point ahead of Tampa Bay, Ottawa, and Boston.

Do the Red Wings recoup assets on Talbot knowing he is not in their future plans? or do they keep him as an insurance policy because injury prone Gibson has been underwhelming? They could promote one of S.Cossa or T.Augustine to platoon with Gibson for the remainder of the season, giving the youngsters some valuable NHL experience.

Options like Merzlikins ($5.4M,) Binnington ($6M), Saros ($7.74), Jarry ($5.375M), come with an onerous salary that may be hard to fit unless retention is involved. Retention would raise the acquisition cost for the Oilers, who already lack a 1st rd, 4th rd, and 5th rd pick in the 2026 draft.

RFA Schmid ($875k) and UFA Nedeljkovic ($2.5M) are cheap but they do not inspire confidence. Are they even better than what the Oilers already have?

As the trade deadline approaches, keep a close eye on the rumours and you could snag the future starter for the offensively inclined Edmonton Oilers.