Monday Morning Ramblings featuring recent trends, Canes, Habs, Flames, and Penguins.

Late in the 3rd period, Brandon Bussi was looking like he was going to easily waltz into his 12th win this season. The Panthers, however, got 2 past him with Bobrovksy pulled, and then won the game in a shootout.

The Hurricanes did garner one point, and are still comfortably in the top spot in the Eastern Conference, but that overtime was costly for the Hurricanes as Seth Jarvis went full speed into the net on a scoring attempt. The impact site looked like the lower right thorax, in which case broken ribs are likely, or the right abdomen, in which case there were certainly some bruised internal organs.

Jarvis, hunched over in pain, left the game immediately. With Jarvis likely to miss time (Coach Brind'Amour said that Jarvis is 'going to be out for a while'), J.Blake jumped onto the top line alongside Aho.

Bussi stopped 38 of 41 (0.927%), but couldn't nab the win. The power play featured Aho, Gostisbehere, Blake, and Svechnikov. The last spot is a hybrid with Ehlers coming on for J.Staal who helps with faceoff duties. Lines on Carolina are however a fool's errand because Brind'Amour regularly applies the blender.

Red alert levels have been reached for Freddie Andersen who hasn't seen the ice in the last 9 Hurricanes games. Ownership is down to 33% on Yahoo and 46% on Fantrax.

At this point, he is providing nothing but a waste of a roster spot for fantasy GMs. If the playoffs started today, who would the Canes trust in nets? Certainly not Freddie. F.Andersen who has been the go to playoff starter in the past, is 36 years old, injury prone, in the last year of a $2.75M contract that has a no movement clause, and his numbers have dropped off: 5-7-2 with a 0.875%.

Both Bussi (0.913%) and Kochetkov (0.899%) have been better. Out of Carolina's 13 losses this year, F.Andersen has claimed 9 of them! His last win came a month and a half ago on Nov.6. Talk is surfacing that F.Andersen could be expendable, but after the Oilers 'solved' their goaltending issue, is there anyone else that really needs a goalie?

As we hit the NHL holiday trade freeze, let us look at which NHL teams have extra goaltenders to trade. I have the Sabres, Hurricanes, Penguins, and the Blues, as teams that could entertain dealing a goalie, but on the buyer side I don't see any teams that are as motivated to buy.

The Oilers, who have tied themselves to another 2 years of Tristan Jarry, have just $612.5k of cap space to play with. The Canadiens were rumoured to be looking to improve their goaltending, but they have called up J.Fowler to give him some games, and simultaneously give S.Montembault a change of pace. Other than that, there aren't any glaring goaltender demands.

No goalie who has played a minimum of 500 minutes of hockey this season, has a worse GSAx/60 than S.Montembault (-0.469). Montembault (32% owned in Yahoo and 59% owned in Fantrax) has been sent down to Laval to get some reps and confidence in a conditioning stint.

He lost his first game 5-2 to the Cleveland Monsters, giving up 4 goals on 24 shots. Monty played better in his second game against the same Monsters team, stopping 27 of 28 shots but still picking up the loss.

Despite J.Fowler's strong play (2-1-1, 0.915%) in a small sample size, he will most likely get sent back to the AHL when Montembault's conditioning stint is complete.

Fowler has an impressive +1.146 GSAx/60, but keep in mind, he has played half (119:51) of his total minutes (240:56) of NHL hockey this season against the lowly Penguins.

Both of Fowler's wins have come against the Penguins (once against Jarry, and once against Skinner). He is a great long term bet, likely to get the reins in 1-2 years, but in the near future will be given time to marinate in the AHL.

Unless there is a major injury to a starting goaltender, I don't foresee any significant goalie movement in the NHL. The one GM who might force this, would be the newest GM in the league, Jarmo Kekalainen, who has gone on record to say that 'We're probably to a point where we're going to have to start making decisions to get down to a two-goalie rotation'. This is a harbinger of impending change coming to the value of A.Lyon or UPL.

In the Jarry- Skinner trade, Kyle Dubas shrewdly managed to pick up a 2nd round pick in 2029 and pending UFAs Kulak and Skinner. Kulak (2.75M) and Skinner (2.60M) can be half retained at the trade deadline for even more assets. The Penguins have not used any retention spots this year.

Before all is said and done, the Penguins might have three draft picks to show for T.Jarry! A great potential haul for a player that was on waivers last year. The Predators on the other hand, have used 2 retention spots, and might be forced to use the last spot on Stamkos, if they want another team to take him on.

If we ignore October, and focus on the league from November 1st onwards (on the basis of teams taking some time to get back in the groove of the new season) some interesting trends emerge:

The Columbus Blue Jackets have given up the most goals per game (3.72) and have the league's worst goal differential (-23). To start the season, Columbus was alternating goalie starts evenly between J.Greaves (8-9-5, 0.904%) and E.Merzlikins (6-6-1, 0.877%), but since Merzlikins returned from injury, around Nov.18, it has been closer to a 2:1 start ratio in favour of Greaves.
The Anaheim Ducks have been playing run and gun hockey scoring the 2nd most goals (91) and giving up the second most goals (90) in that timeframe. They have also given up the most goals shorthanded (22). If the offense dries up, we might be looking at diminished win totals for L.Dostal.
At the other end of the spectrum (boring hockey) we have the Los Angeles Kings, who have scored a league low 52 goals and given up the 3rd fewest goals allowed (50). They also have the worst power play percentage (13.0%), the fewest power play goals (9), and the worst shooting percentage (8.6%) in the league since Nov.1.

Last year the Kings were middle of the pack (15th of 32 teams) in terms of goals scored with 250. If they could improve on offense, they should provide some more wins to D.Kuemper, who should be back from injury before the calendar flips to 2026.

The Dallas Stars have scored the most goals (98) in this time period as well as the most power play goals (24). They do have an outlier shooting percentage (15.9%) as the rest of the league is between 8.6% and 12.5%. Could be a good time to sell high on the big power play producers on the Dallas Stars.
After a poor October, the Calgary Flames have turned things around going 13-9-2 in Nov/Dec. They are in the top 10 in goal differential (+5), and top 4 in shot differential (+4.3 per game). Remember last year, they finished with 96 points but missed out on the playoffs, whereas the Habs and the Devils got in with 91 points each.

Rasmus Andersson has 20 points in his last 19 games since taking over PP1 duties. When he is traded, that points boost could go to Mackenzie Weegar who is finally showing signs of life with 6 points in his last 6 games. His advanced stats all scream BUY LOW! His shooting percentage, 5 on 5 shooting percentage, PDO, Power play IPP, and secondary assists numbers are all unsustainably low.

Zayne Parekh, who has been temporarily loaned to Canada's World Junior team, might prevent Weegar from recapturing a spot on the top power play. Since Nov.1 the power play has been operating at 13.6%, second lowest efficiency in the league (only the aforementioned Kings have been more putrid), so there is even more room for improvement.

D.Wolf (11-13-2, 0.896%) has been getting approximately a 3:1 ratio of starts as compared to D.Cooley (4-4-2, 0.914%), but it is the latter that has played better overall. Cooley's +1.046 GSAx/60 is one of the best in the league (Wolf in comparison is at +0.082 GSAx/60). D.Wolf has played the 5th highest minutes of any goalie in the NHL this season, so giving some more games to Cooley may not be such a bad idea to keep Wolf fresh.

Red alert levels have been reached for Freddie Andersen who hasn't seen the ice in the last 9 Hurricanes games. Ownership is down to 33% on Yahoo and 46% on Fantrax.

Despite J.Fowler's strong play (2-1-1, 0.915%) in a small sample size, he will most likely get sent back to the AHL when Montembault's conditioning stint is complete.

Fowler has an impressive +1.146 GSAx/60, but keep in mind, he has played half (119:51) of his total minutes (240:56) of NHL hockey this season against the lowly Penguins.

If we ignore October, and focus on the league from November 1st onwards (on the basis of teams taking some time to get back in the groove of the new season) some interesting trends emerge:

The Columbus Blue Jackets have given up the most goals per game (3.72) and have the league's worst goal differential (-23). To start the season, Columbus was alternating goalie starts evenly between J.Greaves (8-9-5, 0.904%) and E.Merzlikins (6-6-1, 0.877%), but since Merzlikins returned from injury, around Nov.18, it has been closer to a 2:1 start ratio in favour of Greaves.
The Anaheim Ducks have been playing run and gun hockey scoring the 2nd most goals (91) and giving up the second most goals (90) in that timeframe. They have also given up the most goals shorthanded (22). If the offense dries up, we might be looking at diminished win totals for L.Dostal.
At the other end of the spectrum (boring hockey) we have the Los Angeles Kings, who have scored a league low 52 goals and given up the 3rd fewest goals allowed (50). They also have the worst power play percentage (13.0%), the fewest power play goals (9), and the worst shooting percentage (8.6%) in the league since Nov.1.

The Dallas Stars have scored the most goals (98) in this time period as well as the most power play goals (24). They do have an outlier shooting percentage (15.9%) as the rest of the league is between 8.6% and 12.5%. Could be a good time to sell high on the big power play producers on the Dallas Stars.
After a poor October, the Calgary Flames have turned things around going 13-9-2 in Nov/Dec. They are in the top 10 in goal differential (+5), and top 4 in shot differential (+4.3 per game). Remember last year, they finished with 96 points but missed out on the playoffs, whereas the Habs and the Devils got in with 91 points each.