Monday Morning Ramblings, featuring Linus Ullmark, Igor Shesterkin, and Anthony Stolarz

This article was written by Khurram Sher

Grateful for the opportunity to contribute here, today we will be zeroing in on specific goalie situations in the Eastern Conference! Let's go:

Linus Ullmark is a career 0.915% goalie who has hit a rough patch this year, sitting 72nd out of 72 in Goals Saved Above Expected at a horrid -7.8 through 13 games played. His save percentage this year: an uncharacteristic 0.866%. Last Thursday he let in an overtime softie, failing to cover up a simple Charlie McAvoy shot, which sat behind him in the crease, easily smashed home by Pavel Zacha. Saturday he got the win in a game where the Senators offense was suffocated by the Rick Tocchet coached Flyers. Over the last 31:10 of that game, the Senators managed only 2 shots! The latter of those 2 shots was the overtime winner by Tim Stutzle, giving Ullmark a much needed win.

Just like buying low on skaters with a low shooting percentage, we have an opportunity to buy low on a goalie with a low save percentage that will hopefully regress up to the norm. His lowest save percentage in any season has been 0.905% (going all the way back to 2018-19 with the Sabres). In the 6 seasons since then, he has posted 0.915%, 0.917%, 0.917%, 0.938%, 0.915%, 0.910%. He hasn’t played more than 49 games in a season, however with Anton Forsberg gone to Los Angeles, this may be the year he sets a season high in games played. He is currently tied for 2nd in the league in games played (13) indicating that the Senators are leaning on him despite his bad start. There is no way to go but up here for Ullmark, and if you are in need of goalie help, he could be had at a discount from a GM that is not satisfied with the early season numbers. Linus Ullmark would not have been this irritated had he come to read Goalie Post first: “There are so many things I’d like to say to all the people, all the doubters, all the so-called ‘experts’, that I can’t say to the media. It is what it is. Everybody has a right to their own opinion, but the only opinions that matter are the people around me that I do care about and my coaches. What everybody else says, they’re entitled to say whatever they want because I don’t give two s—s about it.” 2 weeks ago, he raced down the other end of the ice to scuffle BEHIND the net of the Washington Capitals! Look for his numbers to improve, and his frustration to abate.

Speaking of buying low, the Rangers have failed to provide run support to their goalies, in large part due to a depressed shooting percentage of 7.64% in all situations. Conventional wisdom would have it that teams have a higher shooting percentage on the power play (take the Habs for example who are shooting at an unsustainable 25.53% at 5 on 4 play this season). Over the course of an entire season, the best team may break 20% on the power play if everything falls right like it did last year for the Winnipeg Jets. Hold on to your helmets, because the Rangers have tanked their low shooting percentage astonishingly further on the power play: Clocking in at an inexplicable 6.33%! This is untenable with the talent on the Rangers PP (heck even without any talent on any NHL Power play this percentage is absurd). Goals are bound to go in. For reference, the Rangers themselves over the past 3 seasons have been at 11.59%, 14.81%, and 12.16% at 5 on 4. It would make sense to buy low on power play staples like A.Panarin, JT Miller, M.Zibanejad, and A.Fox. I left out that 5th forward because thus far it has switched from V.Trocheck to A.Lafreniere, to most recently W.Cuylle. I would predict that Trocheck will claim that last spot when healthy because the PP has been so unproductive while he was injured. One could also target Igor Shesterkin who will stand to benefit with wins when this shooting percentage regresses upwards to the norm. When they are on the power play, the New York Rangers sit first in the NHL in offensive zone time (63.5%) and second in lowest defensive zone time (23.4%) according to NHL EDGE stats. Compounded with their disappointing season last year, the Rangers lack of scoring thus far is surely making fantasy GMs antsy. Shesterkin himself is showcasing a decent 0.909% and 3.0 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, yet his record is only 4-6-2. Had the shooting percentage of the Rangers at even strength and the power play been league average, Shesterkin and the Rangers would be coasting with a positive goals for/goals against differential (currently they are at minus 5).

With Woll out to start the season, Anthony Stolarz had an amazing opportunity to solidify himself as the undisputed number 1 in Toronto. Instead he put up middling numbers (5-4-1, 0.896%) leaving the door open for Woll as he inches his way back from his unexpected leave of absence. Cayden Primeau’s (2-1, 0.838%) stint with the Leafs has come to an abrupt end, as he was reclaimed by the Hurricanes after being put on waivers. Stolarz should be putting up better numbers, he is currently at -3.7 Goals saved above expected. His track record, however, is excellent: 4th in the league last year with +25.8 GSAx, and 3rd in the league the year before that at +20.1 GSAx in all situations. There was one goalie who was ahead of Stolarz in that category for each of the past two years. His name: Connor Helleybuck ranked 1st in GSAx in 2023-24 and 1st in 2024-25 as well. Stolarz, a former 2nd round pick of the Flyers, hasn’t played more than 34 games in a season. He is already at 12 this year, and if he splits with Woll the rest of the way, he should set a career high of approximately 45 starts. On Saturday night, Stolarz only played a total of 24:42 as he was pulled after allowing 4 goals on 19 shots to the Bruins. J.Woll also played Saturday night in a conditioning stint with the Marlies. He allowed 3 goals to Lehigh Valley on 24 shots. 2 of those goals were assisted by newly acquired defenseman Christian Kyrou. Woll played a total of 36:09, pulled not for allowing bad goals, but because it was his first game back and they are aiming for a gradual return to a regular workload. I foresee these two splitting starts with a few consecutive games to whoever has the hot hand.

That’s it for today, next week we will look at some longer term outlooks for teams with goalies in the last year of their contract!