Monday Morning Ramblings featuring Ingram, Jarry, Blackwood, Wedgewood, Skinner, Lyon, Dobes, Merzlikins, Greaves, and Ullmark

By Khurram Sher

Connor Ingram was staring down the face of a loss, being down 3-0 after one period to the San Jose Sharks. The one big advantage he has is the Oilers offense is on his side, so we can never count them out.

The Oilers scored twice, with Ingram pulled, to tie the game at 3 and send it to overtime. McDavid won the faceoff after Draisaitl was waived out and the Oilers held possession of the puck until Hyman put it away in OT.

With an empty net, we can assume that teams would have a significant negative goal differential. However there are 2 teams that have surprisingly scored more goals than they have allowed, with their goalie pulled. The Pittsburgh Penguins 8 GF vs 5 GA (+3), and the Vegas Golden Knights 8 GF vs 6 GA (+2).

The Winnipeg Jets and the Chicago Blackhawks are the only two teams that have not scored with the goalie pulled. The most incompetent teams with the goalie pulled? The New York Rangers 4 GF vs 18 GA (-14), and the Florida Panthers 4 GF vs 17 GA (-13).

On Saturday the Oilers offense was unable to replicate their heroics vs the Sharks. This time they were unable to overcome the deficit left by Tristan Jarry. He was pulled after allowing 5 goals to the Minnesota Wild.

In 10 games with the Oilers, Jarry has an 0.872%. Stuart Skinner on the Oilers this season provided a 0.891% in 23 games (then showed a slight improvement to 0.895% in 12 games with the Penguins).

The Oilers handcuffed themselves with a more expensive salary for the duration of McDavid's contract, and it has not come with the desired results so far.

At 5 on 4, the Oilers have an exceptional goals for above expected: +9.19. To give you an idea how successful they are, the next 5 teams in that category (Wild, Stars, Preds, Bruins, Blues) all sit between +5.04 to +5.87. If there's one thing opposing coaches should emphasize when playing the Oilers, it should be to stay out of the penalty box.

At the other end of the spectrum (in the category of goals for above expected at 5v4) we have power plays that should be better than their actual performance: the Utah Mammoth -8.55, Colorado Avalanche -7.56, and the Philadelphia Flyers -7.52.

Other than a brief 7 game stint in late October/early November, Nichuskin has pretty much been left off PP1. On Saturday he was back on the top unit in a 5-0 win against Detroit. The Avalanche didn't score any power play goals but did manage to chase Gibson from the net. Cam Talbot came out to play the 3rd period.

The Avalanche goalies ended January on a positive note. Blackwood put up a 27 save shutout, but apart from this bright spot, the past month has been one to forget. Wedgewood went 3-3-1 with a 0.888% in January. Despite Saturday's shutout, Blackwood (2-3) was slightly worse at 0.884% in 2026.

At 5 on 4, the Avalanche have the lowest shooting percentage in the league (9.06%), while the Oilers have the highest (21.05%). Last year Colorado was 3rd best at 18.84%, the year before that: 9th best at 14.82%. The Avalanche should provide more PP run support to Blackwood and Wedgewood as their PP shooting percentage rises upwards. Makar and MacKinnon might pick up some fresh tips from their Canadian teammates in Milan to implement post-Olympics.

Staying with the power play theme, (amongst goalies with at least 20 games played) the ones that have been elite while down a man (4v5), have been Sorokin +2.827 GSAx/60, Lyon +2.759 GSAx/60, Allen +2.635 GSAx/60, and Vasilevsky +2.478 GSAx/60.

The Sabres have allowed the fewest goals at 4v5 (21) and have scored the most (6, but tied with five other teams), giving them a league best -15 goal differential while down a man. Lyon broke a Sabres record with his 10th straight win, a streak that included an injury sandwiched in between all those wins.

Buffalo's goalies are taking turns getting hurt. After Colton Ellis recovered, Lyon went down. As Lyon returned, Lukkonnen was injured. UPL is "going to miss a little bit of time. Right now we're looking at a week, and then see where he's at." remarked coach Lindy Ruff. He won't play in any Sabres game pre Olympics.

Lyon's win streak was halted by Dobes who went 3-0 this week against strong teams like Vegas, Colorado, and Buffalo. Dobes was 6-0 in October with a 0.930%, and he is 6-0 in January but this past month he only posted 0.894%. The Habs 191 goals this season is 3rd in the league behind Colorado and Edmonton, but a word of caution, they lead the league in shooting percentage (13.03%).

2026 has been good for Vasilevsky (0.940%), Vejmelka (0.910%), and Gibson (0.921%). All three are tied for the league lead with 9 quality starts during the month of January.

January Bobrovsky went 3-7 with a 0.836%. The Panthers only have a 32.1% chance of making the playoffs. Florida has emerged as a desired destination for Panarin, who owns a home in the Fort Lauderdale vicinity.

The Panthers only have $2.5M in cap space and are saddled with a lot of NMC's as well, so fitting in Panarin (half retained at $5.82M) alongside his good friend Bobrovsky might prove difficult. Anton Lundell ($5M - highest salary on the Panthers without a NMC or a NTC) might shake loose in any potential deal.

After 5 pts in 9 games towards the end of the previous season, 3 of which were on the power play, Sam Rinzel was a popular sleeper pick this season. He was given ideal deployment on the top power play but did not impress; just 3 points in 13 games. He was then replaced by Levshunov on the top unit.

Rinzel, the 25th overall pick in the 2022 NHL draft, then played 15 more games with the Hawks (5 points) and was sent down to the Rockford IceHogs (10 pts in 19 games). With Levshunov in the dog house, Rinzel has been called back up and given PP1 duties. Let's see if this time around he can hold on to it.

Rick Bowness has provided the coach's bump to the Columbus Blue Jackets; they are 8-1 with 37 GF and 24 GA. The big winner in ice time has been Elvis Merzlikins, who had become un-rosterable under Dean Evason. Usage in minutes for both goalies is almost equal: 279 vs 264 in favor of Greaves. Save percentage under Bowness is also equivalent: 0.910% vs 0.909% in favor of Greaves. Both have 3 quality starts in 5 games. Merzlikins is 4-1 while Greaves is 4-0-1.

Initially Coach Bowness played Kent Johnson on the top power play unit, but after Marchment returned from injury and put up 4 points against Tampa Bay on January 24, K.Johnson was bumped from the top unit by Marchment.

The other big winner is Charlie Coyle who is on a heater; 13 points in 9 games under Bowness. There is a 41.3% chance that Columbus makes the playoffs. Both Coyle and Marchment are unrestricted free agents, could this be a showcase scenario? Former coach Dean Evason certainly wasn't showcasing Elvis Merzlikins who appeared to be stapled to the bench.

The coaching change losers so far? Monahan (4 pts in 9 games) and Voronkov (3 pts in 9 games). With Coyle and Fantilli, the Blue Jackets have a righty and a lefty for power play faceoffs. This has left Monahan, one of the best PP bumper spot players, on the outside looking in.

The Flames have an abundance of right defense signed to good multiyear contracts: Weegar (6.25M), Whitecloud (2.75M), Pachal (1.19M), Parekh (943k), and Brzustewicz (950k). This has led to trade rumours like Weegar to his hometown Senators, or Whitecloud being flipped after being acquired from Vegas.

Parekh wrapped up his maximum 14 day AHL conditioning stint where he put up 5 points (2g, 3a) in 4 games. Both his goals were against fellow recent demotee Jacob Fowler of the Laval Rocket. Parekh should be with the Flames for their last 2 pre-Olympic home games against Toronto on Monday and Edmonton on Wednesday.

With Letang on injured reserve, it was Ryan Shea manning the 2nd power play unit in Pittsburgh. Shea received the 3rd most minutes against the Rangers, after E.Karlsson and S.Crosby.

Ullmark made his triumphant return to the crease after a much publicized mental health leave. He stopped 26 of 27 (0.963%) in a 4-1 win against the Hughes-less Devils. The Senators have a 31.3% chance of making the playoffs. Their defensive metrics have been outstanding, so if Ullmark can regain his form, the Senators can really boost their odds of getting in.