Monday Morning Ramblings featuring former teammates Spencer Knight and Sergei Bobrovsky

With Kochetkov injured and Freddie Andersen only having one win in the month of November (back on November 6 vs the Wild), Brandon Bussi got a second consecutive start after Friday's 5-1 win against the Winnipeg Jets.

He didn't disappoint, nabbing a 1-0 overtime shutout victory over the Calgary Flames. Looking at the boxscore it seems that this game was played in the neutral zone, with a total of 31 shots combined by both teams.

Brandon Bussi faced 15 shots in this game and only 12 shots in the game against Winnipeg. The Hurricanes defense basically 'load manages' their goalies by providing them with half the workload of other NHL goalies who would regularly face 27 shots in one game (instead of spread out over 2 games).

Bussi is 16% owned in Yahoo and 24% owned in Fantrax. Those numbers should increase after this vote of confidence from coach Brind'Amour.

With the news that Lukas Dostal would miss 2-3 weeks, backup Petr Mrazek saw his ownership increase as well. However, he was hurt in the third period in what looked like a left leg injury.

P.Mrazek left to the locker room and was replaced by 3rd stringer Ville Husso. Husso played a total of 9:01 and allowed 1 goal on 1 shot.

C.Bedard was left alone in front of the Ducks net and proceeded to undress Husso. Bedard finished with 2 goals and 2 assists including the empty net goal.

The 5 unanswered goals gave the Blackhawks a come from behind home win. After a shaky start where he let in 2 goals on 3 shots, Spencer Knight settled in and shut the door for the 2nd and 3rd period for Chicago's first win in their last 6 games.

The Chicago Blackhawks are third last in the NHL in Corsi for percentage (46.24%), 2nd last in shots for percentage (45.42%), and second last in expected goals for percentage (45.03%). In case you were interested, the San Jose Sharks are last in all three categories.

With these dreadful underlying numbers, we would expect Chicago to be languishing at the bottom of the league. However, when you glance at the standings, you notice that the Blackhawks have a surprising +7 goal differential.

The reason being that they are 3rd in the league in shooting percentage (12.72%) and 5th in the league in save percentage (0.9048%). As a result they sit near the top of the PDO list (along with Colorado, Dallas, and Tampa Bay). 

This is a warning sign for upcoming regression. When their shooting percentage and save percentage descends closer to the mean, the Blackhawks will be exposed for the actual team that they are.

Spencer Knight's GAA is 2.51 but his expected GAA is 3.37. This GAAx of +0.86 is third highest amongst all starting goalies (J.Swayman and L.Thompson have a higher GAAx). Spencer Knight is also third in the league in goals saved above expected (+14.7 GSAx). Per 60 that breaks down to +0.857 GSAx/60.

Let's compare that number to Spencer Knight's track record: 
2024-25: GSAx/60: +0.188 (league leader Hellebuyck +0.635)
2023-24: Knight played in the AHL with the Charlotte Checkers (25-24-5, 0.905%)
2022-23: GSAx/60: -0.231 (league leader Ullmark +0.883)
2021-22: GSAx/60: +0.138 (league leader Shesterkin +0.666)

In the last 3 seasons he has played in the NHL, his save percentage has been in a relatively tight range 0.908%, 0.901%, 0.902%. However this year it is at 0.918%. Did he suddenly become elite at age 24? The analytics tell us that he will likely regress and is a prime candidate to sell high on.

Sandwiched between USNDTP teammates Matt Boldy (12th) and Cam York (14th), Spencer Knight was drafted by the Florida Panthers 13th overall in the 2019 NHL Draft.

10 days later the Florida Panthers signed UFA Sergei Bobrovsky to a mega $70 million / 7 year deal. This eventually led to his departure from Florida, much like Yaroslav Askarov departed from Nashville soon after J. Saros long term contract. Bobrovsky is now playing in the last year of that contract, so it may be wise, in keeper leagues, to start thinking about who the Panthers starting goaltender will be next year.

A healthy Barkov and a healthy M.Tkachuk will be providing a great baseline of wins for whoever is in nets in 2026-27. GM Zito has shown an ability to get players inked on longer deals with lower AAVs, and Bobrovsky may not be an exception.

Backup plans include current backup D.Tarasov, acquired from Columbus this summer in exchange for a 5th round pick, but he too is a UFA at the end of this season.

The free agent market is thin, filled by older backups and unproven kids that just need a chance: Mrazek, Brossoit, F.Andersen, Skinner, Talbot, Nedeljkovic, Quick, Vanecek, Pickard, Greaves, Cooley, and Bussi.

If we peek at the farm, the Panthers have 5th round pick in 2021, Kirill Gerasimuk (1-2-1, 0.895) and undrafted Cooper Black (8-3-1, 0.902) both playing with the Charlotte Checkers.

Florida has $86.78 million committed to 11F and 5D for next year. If we assume they round out the bottom of their roster with 5 more players between 800k - 1million, they would be all in (without their goalies) at about $91-92 million.

This would leave about $12-13 million left to pay their two goalies (cap projected to be $104 million).

The most likely scenario remains that 37 year old Bobrovksy will take a pay cut and sign a bonus laden age 35+ contract for 1-2 years, but pay attention because the Panthers crease is a lucrative and cushy spot for whoever can secure it for the coming years.