Mock Drafts and Goalie Values Across Multiple League Formats

We are officially back to Fantasy Hockey! Ok, so maybe not technically, but we are in September and, thanks to the new 84-game schedule, September is now the month that Fantasy Hockey actually kicks off in, so it certainly feels like hockey is in the air. Training camps starts in about two weeks, so fantasy managers can expect relevant fantasy news to begin trickling back in real soon, though for now we are still left guessing where Connor Hellebuyck will land, as well as, how much time Gustavsson and Merzlikins may miss. With the first puck drop now on the horizon, it’s, also, mock draft season! Mock drafts are a great way to practice draft strategies, learn how different manager’s value individual players, and, of course, get out your reaches and overpays before it really matters. Let’s take a look at some of the insights gained from recent mock drafts completed on Fantrax and Yahoo, focusing on fantasy goalies.

The two sites had very different results when it came to where and when goalies were drafted. Of course, the two sites had very different league settings, as well. The key takeaway from these varying results is - draft for your league’s settings. Now, let’s dive in.

On Yahoo, we drafted for a 12-team, head-to-head category league with scoring categories of G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT for skaters and W, GAA, SV%, and SHO for goalies; starting rosters of two centers, two left wings, two right wings, four defensemen, and two goalies, plus four bench slots. 12 teams and 16 rounds means that 192 players were drafted.

Overall, goalies were drafted much earlier using Yahoo’s platform, compared to Fantrax. In fact, Andrei Vasilevskiy was drafted at the end of the first round at 12th overall! Notable skaters that could (and likely should) have been drafted there include Evan Bouchard, Auston Matthews, and Jack Hughes.

Just nine picks later Logan Thompson was drafted between Lane Hutson and Matt Boldy at 21st overall. Then all of Jake Oettinger, Connor Hellebuyck, and Ilya Sorokin were drafted in the third round, before the likes of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and William Nylander. This is where it becomes crystal clear why league settings dictate draft strategies. The default Yahoo scoring setting has only six skater categories compared to four goalie categories. Essentially meaning that with elite goaltending alone, a manager could easily win four of the ten categories. Then combine that quality goaltending with some hits and a positive plus-minus, both of which are readily available at the tail end of drafts or even the waiver wire, and a team that features a top-five netminder easily becomes a contender in this type of league setup.

Another key takeaway from mock drafting in this format is that timeshare goalies are still highly coveted possessions. Jesper Wallstedt (round 4, pick 6) and Scott Wedgewood (round 5, pick 10) were selected about the same time as skaters Clayton Keller, Tim Stutzle, and Artemi Panarin and before workhorse goalies like Jeremy Swayman (round 6, pick 4) and Karel Vejmelka (round 7, pick 6). In category leagues, the safe peripherals that come from playing behind Stanley Cup contenders greatly outweigh the pure volume stats that can be gained from goalies getting 55-60 starts on middling clubs. Basically in category leagues, when it comes to quality versus quantity, lean into quality.

For my part, I was able to nab Jet Greaves at round 10, pick 5 and Dan Vladar at round 13, pick 8. These two goalies have much, much less of a track record than the elite goaltenders drafted at the top, but both Greaves and Vladar actually put up highly comparable metrics to the top netminders last season. Vladar, in particular, feels like a steal in round 13 for this league’s format.

Other notable draft bargains include Linus Ullmark (round 13, pick 1), Carter Hart (round 14, pick 7), and Jake Allen (round 16, pick 8). It’s worth noting that Lukas Dostal, a reliable high-volume play, wasn’t selected until round 11, pick 11. In this format, his value drops drastically because his career metrics of 3.23 GAA and .898 SV% are subpar and “saves” is not a featured scoring category.

For the Fantrax mock draft, the league format was for a points league that featured a starting lineup of five forwards, three defenseman, and two goalies, plus six bench slots. Once again, 192 players were drafted overall.

Jake Oettinger ended up being the first goalie off the board (round 3, pick 1) followed immediately by Karel Vejmelka (round 3, pick 2). We can see how volume plays a much bigger role in a points league and, as such, it’s far easier to justify Vejmelka’s early selection based on his perennial 60 start potential.

Connor Hellebuyck would get chosen at round 5, pick 1 (by the same mock manager that selected Oettinger) and I would use my round 6 pick on Andrei Vasilevskiy. Between the two formats, there is a five round discrepancy on when last year’s Vezina Trophy winner was selected, highlighting, once again, how league formats dictate draft strategy.

The other noteworthy takeaway from the Fantrax draft is that it may be just too early to completely rely on ADP. What I found was that within rounds 9 and 10, a whopping 17 goalies were drafted! Talk about a goalie run. I’m guessing that Fantrax’s AI or computer implemented draft strategy has learned to take a “zero-G” approach, so once the starting lineup of five forwards and three defenseman were filled up, any team on autodraft ended up selecting two goalies with back-to-back picks. However, I’m not sure if you can rely on that level of consistency in your own league’s fantasy draft.

Still, notable draft bargains remained in the final few draft rounds where Joey Daccord (round 14, pick 6) and the aforementioned steals of Carter Hart (round 15, pick 2) and Jake Allen (round 15, pick 9) were once again available.

That’s all for this week, thanks for reading! My name is Garrett Finlay and you can follow me on X @garrett_fi51284 and on Bluesky @garrettfinlay.bsky.social where I am often talking goalies and fantasy hockey. You can, also, find me at DobberHockey.com providing injury news and updates every Wednesday throughout the season. Happy Hockeying and good luck out there!