Goalies, Wins, and the Eastern Conference

One of the most important factors to a goalie’s fantasy output is their win total. And while goalie stats in general are far from predictable, wins are likely the easiest and simplest metric to guess for the position, at least when examining the team that’s in front of them. So with just a few weeks remaining before the puck drops on the NHL’s regular season, let’s take a look at how each team may fare when it comes to “wins” and where each squad may end up in the standings by season’s end. We’ll rank them from last to first, looking at the Eastern Conference this week and then we will check out the Western Conference next week. Let’s dive in!

Atlantic Division

8. Detroit Red Wings: The Yzer-plan failed and now nobody seems to know what direction the Red Wings are heading. It’s clear to Dylan Larkin, however, that Mo Town won’t be celebrating playoff successes anytime soon, so maybe fantasy managers should heed the captain’s disapproval.

7. Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs went out and retooled their roster this offseason by adding Raddysh, Bobrovsky, and the number one overall pick from this year’s draft, Gavin McKenna. Will these moves be enough to lift the Maple Leafs out of the dregs or will Marner’s exit at the end of 2024-25 go down as the end of an era, as well as, the end of their Stanley Cup window?

6. Boston Bruins: The Bruins exceeded expectations last season and while they know how to win with grit and depth, they lack the center depth that may be necessary to top the Atlantic. Swayman should get the bulk of starts in front of AHL all-star Michael DiPietro, but the wins may not come as frequently this year.

5. Florida Panthers: Age will be a factor for this club, as they decidedly did not get any younger over the offseason. On paper this team looks potent, but an impressive resume doesn’t necessarily translate to on-ice successes and it will be up to head coach Paul Maurice to get this team to hum. Given the team’s overall age and propensity for injuries, there is, also, little reason to think that their injury woes are behind them.

4. Ottawa Senators: Team chemistry is always important to winning clubs, so while Brady Tkachuk’s exodus left the fan base stunned, it could prove to be a boon inside the locker room. Under head coach Travis Green, the Sen’s defense should keep this team in most any game they play.

3. Buffalo Sabres: After a 15 year hiatus from postseason action, Buffalo finally put it all together to win the Atlantic Division crown in 2026. While there are still question marks in the lineup following some key departures (Alex Tuch, Bowen Byram), there are enough young play drivers that can step up to keep the Sabres fighting for another playoff berth.

2. Montreal Canadiens: The Canadiens didn’t make any major changes this offseason, but after vaulting to an impressive 106 point finish last season there was little left to fix for a team that finished one goal short of the Eastern Conference Finals. Expect continued growth from their core of Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Hutson, and Demidov and for that growth to translate directly to wins.

1. Tampa bay Lightning: Although regular season success hasn’t translated to postseason glory in recent campaigns, the Lightning still boast one of the best teams across the entire NHL. This is one of a handful of teams that could end the season ranked within the top-five of both Goals Forced per Game and Goals Against per Game, as they accomplished that feat just last year (3.54 GF/G, fourth in NHL; 2.82 GA/G, third in NHL).

Metropolitan Division

8. New York Islanders: There is some young talent, such as Calum Ritchie and the 2026 Rookie of the Year winner, Matthew Schaefer, and there are some hard-nosed veterans in Brayden Schenn and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, but there isn’t really enough of either to help them compete for a division title this season. Of course, this type of projection is nothing new for goalie Ilya Sorokin.

7. Pittsburgh Penguins: Despite finishing second in the Metropolitan last season, the Penguins finished with 41 wins, the lowest of any Eastern Conference playoff team. Dan Muse really got the most out of a thin roster last season and the writing on the wall says that it’s unlikely to repeat, especially with an unproven tandem in net.

6. New York Rangers: Dorofeyev will bring a scoring touch that the Ranger’s desperately need, but question’s abound regarding what the offense is capable of without Artemi Panarin. Shesterkin will provide the metrics fantasy managers need, but will the team in front of him be able to score enough to win games?

5. Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers, under coach Rick Tochett, have played to their identity as a defensively sound, low event club that keeps themselves in games to the very end. Of course, their lack of offense and focus on “not losing games" makes it difficult for them to simply “win” games. Their lack of center depth is troubling, but they have a wealth of wingers.

4. New Jersey Devils: While the sky is the limit for a healthy Devils team, history proves again and again that it’s far safer to bet on the “under” when it comes to New Jersey’s win column. And though net minder Jake Allen has what it takes to win a few fantasy championships, he, also, has what it takes to bottom out. The Devils are the high risk, high reward darlings of fantasy hockey.

3. Columbus Blue Jackets: Once Rick Bowness took over head coaching duties midway through the year, the Blue Jackets were a different team entirely and finished on a 21-11-5 run that featured a top-five GAA. There have been no shortage of rumors out of Columbus this offseason, but so long as Werenski and Marchenko are on the bench that Bowness stands behind, this club can turn some heads.

2. Washington Capitals: After a flurry of offseason moves, the Caps have catapulted themselves into instant contenders for what may be the Great 8’s last run. The movie version of this story would end with Ovi hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup as everything fades to black, but that may be too much to ask for. Still, it’s hard to imagine that the Capitals won’t go all in for their captain this season.

1. Carolina Hurricanes: What else needs to be said about the reigning champions? They return to the ice with quality goaltending, formidable defensemen, forwards that put the team first, and a head coach that knows how to put all the pieces together. The Hurricanes are the odds on favorites to win the Metro Division and the Eastern Conference.

That’s all for this week, thanks for reading! My name is Garrett Finlay and you can follow me on X @garrett_fi51284 and on Bluesky @garrettfinlay.bsky.social where I am often talking goalies and fantasy hockey. You can, also, find me at DobberHockey.com providing injury news and updates every Wednesday throughout the season. Happy Hockeying and good luck out there!