2025-26 Playoff Ramblings

Colorado Avalanche vs Los Angeles Kings

Only the Canucks had fewer regulation wins (15) than the Kings (22) this season.

On paper, this Avs/Kings series looks to be the most lopsided. The Kings had the 4th most anemic offense this season managing just 225 goals. They go up against the stingiest defense in the Avalanche who allowed a league low 203 goals.

If you need to choose a goalie for a playoff pool, look no further than the duo of Wedgewood and Blackwood.

Scott Wedgewood came out of nowhere to finish 4th in the league in wins with 31. He led the league in GAA (2.02) and save percentage (0.921%). He also got the call for game 82 in which he posted a 22 save shutout against the Kraken. 

Wedgewood had the best GSAx/60 of any playoff goalie (+0.544) but will he be rewarded with the crease in game 1? They could probably start 3rd stringer Trent Miner and still sweep the Kings in 4 games!

To be fair to the Kings, the team did improve to middle of the pack in offense (3.10 GF/G) after adding Panarin at the trade deadline. For comparison, the Kings produced a lowly 2.74 GF/G over the entire season.

Another area where they could regress upwards: Kings have lowest shooting percentage of all playoff teams at 5v5 (8.41%). 

The season series was a perfect 3-0 for the Avs, all three wins in regulation. 

Several non-playoff teams like the Capitals (95 points), Red Wings (92 points), Blue Jackets (92 points), and the Islanders (91 points) finished ahead of the LA Kings (90 points) in the overall standings.

There is a cavernous 121 difference in the goal differential between the Kings (-22) and the Avalanche (+99). The Kings can look to the 2010 Canadiens for inspiration, who upset the President’s trophy winning Washington Capitals in which the goal differential was huge as well (+85 vs -6). They will need a Jaroslav Halak like performance from Anton Forsberg or Darcy Kuemper.

Kuemper has been stapled to the bench recently, only seeing the ice in 1 of the last 6 games. Anton Forsberg won 4 of those games and it appears as if the hot hand will get the nod for game 1.

Nonetheless, the situation looks bleak for the Kings, for the following reason:

(1) The Avs are 19-2-3 against the Pacific division.

(2) The Los Angeles Kings finished the 2025-26 season with 46 points from non-regulation play, setting a new NHL record.

(3) The Kings are the only playoff team with a losing record at home.

(4) The Kings might not get many offensive opportunities as the Avalanche were the most disciplined playoff team this season, only taking 6.66 PIM/game.

It is looking like a lock that Brett Kulak will stop the Kings in the first round for the 5th straight year.

Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild

The 2nd vs 3rd seed is always unfair. Either the 112 point Dallas Stars (3rd in the league) or the 104 points Minnesota Wild (7th in the league) will be ousted in round 1.

Adding Quinn Hughes was a monumental in season move for the Wild. How have they fared since his acquisition? Well, the Wild are 28-15-7 since Quinn Hughes entered the lineup on Dec.14 (0.630 winning percentage). The Stars over that same span were a tad better: 29-13-7 (0.663 winning percentage).

They didn't seem to miss a beat from late February to late March when Mikko Rantanen was injured post Olympics, as they went 9-4-2. That 0.667 winning percentage wasn't far off from their 0.683 winning percentage all season. In fact the Stars offense showed slight improvement for that month (3.47 GF/G during the month Rantanen missed vs 3.40 GF/G over the entire regular season). 

The Dallas Stars were the most fortunate team this year with a PDO of 102.8, so regression could be in the cards. They also led the league in 5v4 goals (65), and we know power play opportunities are not as ample in the playoffs as they are in the regular season.

Both teams had two wins in their season series: Dallas went 2-1-1, while Minnesota was 2-2-0.

Goaltending was a strength for both teams. Oettinger finished 3rd in the league in wins with 35, and Minnesota was one of two teams (Colorado being the other at 0.908%) with goaltending that stopped shots at a rate higher than 90% (0.903%).

 Jesper Wallstedt posted a 0.919% post Olympics and will get first crack at defending the Minnesota crease in game 1. Gustavsson was at 0.895% post Olympics.

Oddsmaker are calling this the closest series.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Utah Mammoth

The top team in the Pacific finished only 3 points higher in the standings than the first wildcard team. Although Vegas has the advantage in playoff experience, it is Utah (43) that had more wins than Vegas (39) this season, and a better goal differential as well (+28 vs +15).

Carter Hart won 6 straight games to close out the regular season allowing only 10 goals (0.930%).  Looks like he has earned the right to start game 1 of the playoffs over 2023 Stanley Cup winner Adin Hill.

Hart will be up against the workhorse Karel Vejmelka who was 2nd in the league in wins (38), and first in starts (63). Vejmelka will be stepping into the postseason for the first time. 

The season series favoured Utah (2-1) as Vegas only managed to pick up one win (1-2).

New coach Tortorella has managed to right the ship, going 7-0-1 and helping Vegas clinch top spot in the Pacific.

Utah (185) actually had more 5v5 goals than Vegas (174) this season.

The Mammoth's power play opportunities may be limited because Vegas was disciplined this season, only taking 226 minor penalties, the lowest in the league.

Tortorella has kept the 5 forward power play: Eichel - Marner- Hertl - Stone - Dorofeyev, and appears to be going with an Olympic calibre line 1 in Marner - Eichel - Stone to kick off the post season.

Like the Tampa/Montreal series, the Vegas/Utah series will feature no Saturday games.

Between M.Weegar and R.Andersson, at least one former Flames defenseman that started the season with Calgary will advance to round 2.

Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks

The Edmonton Oilers finished 1 point ahead of the Anaheim Ducks this season. The Ducks had more wins (43 vs 41) but mainly due to the shootout, where they went 8-0, while the Oilers were 0-4. 

The Anaheim Ducks were the unluckiest playoff team ranking 3rd last in PDO (98.1). Both teams got subpar goaltending during the season: Anaheim’s team save percentage was 0.876% (rank 30), and Edmonton’s was at 0.879% (rank 28).

How has Edmonton performed after unreliable goaltending from Skinner and Jarry? Since naming Ingram as starter on Sunday March 15, the Oilers have allowed 38 goals. That is tied with the Flyers for the fewest in the league. Ingram will go up against Dostal who has faced McDavid at the Olympics as well.

The Ducks are 9-9-3 since the trade deadline, the worst record amongst all playoff teams. They also own the worst goal differential (-8) of all playoff teams since the trade deadline.

Over the full season the Ducks allowed 288 goals - 4th worst in the entire league.

If you need offense in a playoff pool, look no further than the Oilers attack. Guys like McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard are salivating over the points banquet that awaits them in round 1. The season series was 2-1 in favour of Edmonton. The Oilers scored 16 goals in those 3 games! McDavid contributed 2 goals and 4 assists.

Connor McDavid has more playoff points in the last 2 years (75) than Anaheim's leading scorer, Cutter Gauthier has in the 2026-26 regular season (69).

This is the last series to get underway. Game 1 will take place in Edmonton, at 10pm on Monday night. The Ducks happen to be the only playoff team that has a losing record on the road.

Buffalo Sabres vs Boston Bruins

The Sabres finished 4 points shy of the top spot in the East, but they did lead the conference in regulation wins (42). 

Since Kevyn Adams was fired on December 15, 2025, Sabres are an incredible 36-9-5. A span in which they lead the league in points (77), winning percentage (0.770), shooting percentage (13.6%), and goal differential (+58).

However, their first round opponents are no slouches either. They too have turned it up this calendar year. The Bruins have the 3rd best winning percentage (0.683) since January 1st, 2026.

The season series favoured the Bruins (3-1-0) over the Sabres (1-1-2).

Both teams benefited from having the bounces go their way: The Sabres had the 2nd highest PDO this year at 102.2, the Bruins were 3rd at 101.95. If you isolate further to 5v5, the Bruins had the highest PDO in the East (102.26).

There are some underlying reasons that Boston faces an uphill battle here:

(1) The Bruins allowed the most power play goals (64) of all sixteen playoff teams.

(2) The Bruins are the only playoff team to have a losing record against their own division (11-12-3).

(3) Boston had the biggest goals differential above expected (+51.34) at 5v5. No other team had higher than +39.06 (Avalanche). 

In nets, Jeremy Swayman had the best GSAx of all playoff goalies (+28.8). He will face Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen who pulled away from Alex Lyon as the 1A option towards the end of the regular season. Lyon was also injured in April, so the net looks like it belongs to UPL currently. 

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens

Lightning led the East with a +59 goal differential, where they were the tightest defensive team having given up just 231 goals against. They will have home ice advantage but interestingly, Montreal put up more points on the road (24-9-8), than the Lightning did at home (26-14-1). 

The season series was neck and neck, each team won 2 games. The Lightning were 2-2-0, while the Canadiens were 2-1-1.

Both these Atlantic division teams are evenly matched. They finished with an identical 106 points on the season. The Habs have 58 pts in their last 43 games, while the Lightning have 57 pts in their last 43 games.

If we look at the recent goal differential (since January 1st, 2026), it is also close: +33 (Tampa Bay) vs +28 (Montreal). 

The Lightning (101.95) and the Canadiens (101.94) had similar good luck in the PDO department ranking 4th and 5th in the league respectively. 

You would think this matchup would be a coin flip for bettors, yet the oddsmakers disagree, they are heavily favouring the Lightning to advance. Amongst all first round matchups, only the Colorado Avalanche have higher odds to beat the Los Angeles Kings.

Vasilevsky led the league in wins this year with 39. The 2 game playoff experience of Jakub Dobes is minuscule compared to Vasilevsky's 115 games.

Montembault's last game this season was a 6-5 loss to the Ducks on March 6th. The coaching staff lost all confidence in him by then and let youngsters Dobes and Fowler guard the cage for the last 5 weeks.

How have the Habs fared? Since then, they have allowed the 2nd fewest goals/game (50 in 21 games, tied with the Avs).

In comparison, the Lightning over that same span have allowed 69 goals in 22 games. 

Jon Cooper’s team was quite undisciplined this season taking a league leading 11.58 PIM/60. If they don’t improve on that metric, they leave themselves open to allowing Suzuki to cook on the power play where he notched 43 power play points, 2nd in the league to McDavid.

The Lightning also drew the most penalties at 11.07 PIM/60. Sounds like lots of post whistle scrums, which wont decrease with former Hab Corey Perry now a member of the Lightning.

Kucherov by the way racked up 36 power play points this season (5th in the league).

A key injury to Noah Dobson will likely mean he misses the first round after blocking a shot with his thumb.

Carolina Hurricanes vs Ottawa Senators

Both teams got subpar goaltending during the season: Ottawa’s team save percentage was 0.878% (rank 29), and Carolina’s was at 0.880% (rank 26). 

Ullmark had the worst GSAx of all playoff starters (-12.8). Ersson (-16.5) and A.Hill (-14.2) were worse, but both have been relegated to backup. 

On paper this looks like an easy win for the top seed Hurricanes over the Senators, the second wildcard team. Not so fast. This matchup features teams ranked 2nd (Carolina at +65.49) and 3rd (Ottawa at +50.87) in the league in expected goal differential. 

Only the Avalanche have allowed fewer goals (69 vs 70) than the Senators have since Linus Ullmark's return. He took a one month hiatus for personal / mental health issues, and has come back rejuvenated.

The Senators are 19-6-4 since Ullmark's return on Jan.31, tied for 1st in the league with 42 points. The Hurricanes and Senators both have 42 points in their last 29 games. Hurricanes arrive to the playoffs as the hottest team in the East, going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. 

The last two games of the Hurricanes season were a back to back set. The plan was to play Bussi in the first game, and Kochetkov in the second game. Due to a paperwork error, Kochetkov was disqualified from playing and Bussi was forced into a last minute back to back start.

Had the playoffs started earlier, let's say before Bussi signed his extension, there would be no doubt as to who the playoff starter would be. However, the Bussi bubble has burst and his numbers have dropped drastically into league average territory.

It looks likely that Freddie Andersen will be in the crease for Game 1 against the Senators. Freddie has 3 wins in his last 4 games, the only loss was to Ottawa on April 5, 2026, when he allowed 5 goals on 30 shots (0.833%).

That was the only win Ottawa could muster in the season series against Carolina. The other two games were both losses in regulation.

Coach Brind'Amour said that it is very likely that both Andersen and Bussi will play at some point in the series. Kochetkov is healthy but won't be an option yet according to the coach. 

Another factor that could play a role: The Senators only accumulated 23 points from overtime (6 wins, 11 losses), which was dwarfed by Carolina’s 35 points (14 wins, 7 losses). All that goes out the window in these playoffs where 3v3 and shootouts are non-existent.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers

Two teams that weren't expected to make the playoffs, did so with identical 98 point seasons.

The Flyers +7 goal differential is the worst of all Eastern conference playoff teams. The Penguins had a more respectable +25.

Philadelphia finished the season with only 27 regulation wins, all other Eastern conference playoff teams had at least 33.

Philadelphia is also the weakest offense in the East bracket, with only 250 goals scored this season. Tocchet has them playing sound defensively, but the offense is lacking.

The Flyers have the fewest power play goals (37) of all sixteen playoff teams, as well as the worst power play percentage (15.7%).

They did end the season exceptionally well - their 15-5-1 record is the best in the league since the trade deadline. 

The Penguins are the opposite: the weakest defensive team among the eight Eastern playoff teams, having allowed 268 goals against. 

Since the NHL trade deadline on March 6th, the Penguins have allowed a league worst 4.19 goals against per game. That beats out the Canucks (4.10 GA/G) and the Leafs (4.11 GA/G).

On the bright side the Penguins offense has scored 4.19 GF/G since March 6th (no other team is higher than 3.90 GF/G), however, the Penguins league leading team shooting percentage of 15.9% since the trade deadline, screams of regression.

Both teams have won a pair of games in the season series: Pittsburgh is 2-0-2, while Philadelphia is 2-2-0.

In nets, Stuart Skinner is looking to make it back to the Stanley Cup Finals for the third straight year. He has a wealth of post season experience (50 games). Arthur's Silovs also has a wealth of playoff experience, but in the AHL, where he claimed the Calder Cup as playoff MVP last year. At the opposite end, another former Canuck, Dan Vladar, will start in his first NHL playoff game.